(Click the link to comment and to vote – voting not working through email, sorry!)A recent JAMA article summarized China’s experience with 72,314 COVID-19 novel coronavirus cases (Wu & McGoogan, JAMA 2020 Feb 24 [Epub ahead of print]). Which of the following is true?
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March 10, 2020 at 8:26 pm
D) Transmission is most commonly between family members
Per the report, the first reported case was 12/8/19, and by 12/31/19 there were 27 cases. Disease spread rapidly to 7,736 confirmed cases by 1/30/20 and 74,675 by 2/20/20. The highest case fatality rate was in those > 80 years old (14.8%) and those 70-79 years old (8%), but there were no fatalities in children < 9 years old. There were 889 (1% of the total) patients diagnosed + by PCR test but asymptomatic. Case fatality rate has been estimated to be 1-3%, and is higher for SARS (9.6%) and MERS (34.4%), but the total number of deaths is higher for COVID-19 as it is not contained and is spreading rapidly. There were 1,183 case clusters, mostly of 2-4 cases per cluster, and 64% of the clusters were within familial households. The majority (81%) of the cases were mild, with 14% severe and 5% critical; the case fatality rate was 49% among critical cases.
The article is found at: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
March 14, 2020 at 4:03 pm
Note: the above answer that I wrote is from the Chinese experience documented in their article. Things may change as the disease becomes more widespread and families of affected patients are aware and take precautions (which the earliest affected families presumably didn’t know to do)